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Hurricane OLAF


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
OLAF CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. 
THE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE WITH BANDING.  THE EYE HAS
BEEN GETTING SMALLER IN THE ANIMATION AND IS THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE NUDGED
THEIR FORECAST TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
SYSTEM INLAND AND CREATE A QUICKER DECAY.  HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS.  A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A BEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS PER THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 18.8N 104.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 104.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.8N 105.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N 105.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 105.8W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N 105.7W    DISSIPATED 
 
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC