ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003 OLAF HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING BOTH NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO 55 KT...BUT SHIP KAOU WITH A RELIABLE HISTORY AND LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED ONLY ABOUT 1005 MB AND 20 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...320/7. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE TRACKS FROM NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 29C THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.4N 101.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.9N 101.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 15.5N 102.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 16.0N 102.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 103.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 17.9N 104.9W 70 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC