Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
OLAF HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING BOTH NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO 55 KT...BUT SHIP KAOU WITH A RELIABLE
HISTORY AND LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED ONLY ABOUT 1005 MB AND 20 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...320/7. A
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEARLY ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE TRACKS FROM NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. 
THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
THE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN
29C THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.4N 101.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.9N 101.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.5N 102.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 102.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 103.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 17.9N 104.9W    70 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W    65 KT
 
 
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