Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF LINDA.  THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED
AND IS BECOMING WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 AND HAS BEEN THE OVERALL MOTION FOR THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE STORM
WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY A LOWER LEVEL FLOW.  

IN A LOW-SHEARED...WARM SST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE SHIPS MODEL
INTENSIFIES LINDA TO 63 KT IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SSTS.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 18.0N 111.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.9N 112.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 115.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.4N 117.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.6N 118.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.7N 120.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.7N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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