ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003 KEVIN IS STILL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGES UPON THE SYSTEM. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION INDICATED KEVIN IS SET TO TURN MORE LEFT AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS SOUTH AND WEST AS IT RESPONDS TO A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT MOTION HAS BEEN 300/7 AND WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME WHICH THE FORECAST INDICATES. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS DISSIPATE KEVIN COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE 24 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM. BEYOND 24 HR THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN BEYOND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SPINS DOWN. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN. FORECASTER SISKO/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 23.7N 118.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 06/1200Z 24.2N 119.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 07/0000Z 24.5N 121.5W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/0000Z 24.4N 124.9W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 127.5W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC