Tropical Storm KEVIN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
KEVIN IS STILL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EASTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGES UPON THE SYSTEM.
 
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION INDICATED KEVIN IS SET TO TURN
MORE LEFT AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS SOUTH AND WEST AS IT RESPONDS TO A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT
MOTION HAS BEEN 300/7 AND WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME
WHICH THE FORECAST INDICATES.

THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
 
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS DISSIPATE KEVIN COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE 24 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM.  BEYOND
24 HR THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN BEYOND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SPINS DOWN.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 23.7N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 24.2N 119.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 24.5N 121.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.4N 124.9W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 127.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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