ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN HAS BECOME A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0436Z TRMM PASS DEPICT THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING...25 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED UN-FLAGGED 30 KT WINDS AND STRONGER RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE BEYOND 48. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS THAT THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE FURTHER WEAKENING. FORECASTER ROBERTS/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 22.5N 116.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 117.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 23.6N 119.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 24.1N 120.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/0600Z 24.2N 122.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0600Z 24.2N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC