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Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN HAS BECOME A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0436Z TRMM
PASS DEPICT THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES
NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING...25 KT
FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALED UN-FLAGGED 30 KT WINDS AND STRONGER RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS IN
THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS THE RIDGE BEYOND 48. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS THAT THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS
EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE FURTHER WEAKENING.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 22.5N 116.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 117.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.6N 119.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 24.1N 120.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 24.2N 122.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 24.2N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC