Hurricane JIMENA

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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL...ROUND...CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND
AFWA ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THIS LASTEST INFORMATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. 
ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
IN 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD CREATE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE
UKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A TRACK TO THE
RIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA CONSENSUS.
 
JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...HOWEVER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT
MOVES WEST OF 140W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEVELS OFF AT 80 KT
AFTER 12 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL
WEAKENS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THE
UKMET DROPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 48
HOURS. A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENTERS A
REGION OF WARMER SSTS SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.1N 137.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 139.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N 142.8W    80 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.8N 149.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 155.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 159.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 18.0N 162.5W    70 KT
 
 
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