Hurricane JIMENA

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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT JIMENA CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65
KT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM CPHC AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  A 0923Z TRMM
PASS REVEALED A DISTINCT...SMALL EYE BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
BASED ON THIS DATA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE
JIMENA WITH 65 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGRESS...BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AT 14 KNOTS.  THE PAST FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE
HELPED IN LOCATING THE POSITION AND MOTION.  THERE APPEARS TO BE
LESS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT
OUT ALLOWING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH.  A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER 
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
ONLY THE UKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK.  THE FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA
CONSENSUS.
 
JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...BUT BASED ON
THE NAVOCEANO SST ANALYSIS...JIMENA SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME
OVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 75 KT AFTER 24 HOURS.  THERE
IS A POSSIBILTY...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48
HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER WARMER SSTS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TO WEST TRACK...AND TAKES A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL...THE
INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 16.8N 136.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.4N 138.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W    75 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.9N 144.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 158.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 162.0W    70 KT
 
 
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