Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...
HOWEVER...A TRIM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0841Z SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER POSITION
INFERRED FROM THE INFRARED IMAGERY.  BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
PASS...I WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A STORM FOR NOW.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INITIAL
POSITION.  I BELIEVE THE CENTER IS PROBABLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION GIVEN BELOW BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY
BEFORE MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN ADJUSMENT IN THE TRACK.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR
140W.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N145W IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT BUT LEAVE ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS SOME REDUCTION OF
THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...BOTH THE
GFS AND UKMET RE-DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE WHICH...IF IT VERIFIES...
WOULD FAVOR A MORE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER THAT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
27C FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THEN. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER
THE COOLER WATERS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 14.7N 131.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 133.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 135.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N 137.2W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 150.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 156.0W    60 KT
 
 
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