ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. THE CYCLONE IS SHOWING PERSISTENT COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IR IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 18N114W. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON PERSISTENCE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PROPERLY INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1200Z 20.8N 107.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.1N 107.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.6N 108.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 22.4N 109.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 23.1N 111.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN