ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A CIRCULARLY-SHAPED AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD PATTERN WARRANTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...BUT EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE GFDL MODEL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.0N 111.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 13.0N 113.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 14.0N 117.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC