Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A CIRCULARLY-SHAPED AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER
OF CIRCULATION...WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD PATTERN WARRANTS UPGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
CONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE...BUT EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  

INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE DEPRESSION
IS IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE.  A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE PRESENCE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN...THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 13.0N 111.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 13.0N 113.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 14.0N 117.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W    45 KT
 
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