ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003 ...CORRECTED 72 HR INTENSITY TO 40 KT... GUILLERMO LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED AT THE MOMENT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN APPEARING IN BURSTS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE EAST. GIVEN GUILLERMO'S CURRENT STATE AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GUILLERMO PASSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-LEVEL OVERCAST IS BEING DISPLACED MORE NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD...ABOUT 270/12. AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION FOR TROPICAL STORM HILDA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SORT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 TROPICAL CYCLONES. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF HILDA RATHER THAN ON GUILLERMO. ASSUMING THAT THE STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES....MAINTAINS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.5N 126.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 15.6N 128.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 15.8N 133.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 15.9N 135.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 16.0N 149.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC