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Tropical Storm GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
...CORRECTED 72 HR INTENSITY TO 40 KT...
GUILLERMO LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED AT THE MOMENT.  DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN APPEARING IN BURSTS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
FROM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
THE EAST.  GIVEN GUILLERMO'S CURRENT STATE AND THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  SOME
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GUILLERMO PASSES OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.
 
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-LEVEL OVERCAST IS BEING DISPLACED MORE
NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO
BE CONTINUING WESTWARD...ABOUT 270/12.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
DISCUSSION FOR TROPICAL STORM HILDA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SORT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 TROPICAL CYCLONES.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION...IF
IT OCCURS...WOULD HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF HILDA RATHER
THAN ON GUILLERMO.  ASSUMING THAT THE STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...
LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES....MAINTAINS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 15.5N 126.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.6N 128.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 15.8N 133.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.9N 135.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 149.0W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC