ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003 THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RAGGED WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 50 KNOTS. BECAUSE THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOL WATER IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THIS MAY BE CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING AND MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS APPROACHING GUILLERMO. GUILLERMO IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THERE IS A STRONG AND EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE NOGAPS WHICH MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AND MOVES IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 16.1N 120.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 16.0N 125.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 136.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 16.0N 139.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC