Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

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TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003

THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS RAGGED WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL
50 KNOTS. BECAUSE THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES COOL WATER IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THIS MAY BE CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING AND
MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS APPROACHING GUILLERMO. 

GUILLERMO IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THERE IS A STRONG AND
EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO
ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE NOGAPS WHICH
MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AND MOVES IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0300Z 16.1N 120.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     10/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N 125.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     12/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 136.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 139.5W    35 KT
 
 
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