Tropical Depression SEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2003

LATEST QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR BUT THE SYSTEM
LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED...ONLY A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION COULD BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO STORM STATUS BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. 

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.    
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RATHER RAPIDLY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 16.5N 116.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 124.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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