ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING HOWEVER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION BUT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH. FELICIA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH STEERING BEING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR CUTOFF CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...WHICH COULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERSTATING THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 15.3N 122.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 128.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 16.8N 131.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z 19.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 24.0N 151.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC