Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING HOWEVER. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION BUT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE ELONGATED
NORTH-SOUTH. FELICIA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE
INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH
STEERING BEING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR
CUTOFF CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...WHICH COULD CAUSE A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERSTATING THE PRESENCE OF THIS
FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 15.3N 122.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N 131.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 24.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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