Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INTENSIFIED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
FELICIA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO BE WARM ALONG THE TRACK OF FELICIA THROUGH ALMOST 72
HOURS. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND FELICIA MAY
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS.

FELICIA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL
TRACK AND SAME FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH IN FACT ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 14.8N 111.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 129.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 142.0W    30 KT
 
 
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