ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003 DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE ENRIQUE HAS MOVED OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE MORE RECENT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/14. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...ENRIQUE IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE... ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 22C SST WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS SO MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.0N 117.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.7N 119.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 122.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 124.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 15/0000Z 19.7N 127.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC