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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE
ENRIQUE HAS MOVED OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOW ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED
TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE
MORE RECENT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/14. SINCE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6
HOURS...ENRIQUE IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD AS IT BECOMES
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE...
ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 22C SST WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS SO
MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS SLIGHTLY
QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE
CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 19.0N 117.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.7N 119.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 20.0N 122.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 124.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 15/0000Z 19.7N 127.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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