ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003 THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH TAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A POSITION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT ABOUT 01Z SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY CENTER LOCATION...IF ANY...AT LEAST 100 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. RECENT TRMM AND SSMI PASSES ARE INCONCLUSIVE BUT FAVOR THE POSITION UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE CHOICE OF LEAST REGRET OR WORST CASE SCENARIO IS TO OPT FOR THE CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION. PERHAPS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL RESOLVE THIS QUESTION LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT...2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND THE UKMET MODEL FORECASTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH 120 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 24 TO 48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY PHONE HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL...SO A WATCH WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THERE IS COMMUNICATION WITH THEM. MEANWHILE...WORDING IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL INDICATE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHOUT SPECIFICALLY ISSUING A WATCH. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.1N 103.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 17.8N 104.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 18.1N 104.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 105.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 18.8N 106.9W 35 KT 120HR VT 22/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC