Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003
 
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH
TAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A POSITION NEAR THE
CENTER OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT
ABOUT 01Z SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WITH
THE MOST LIKELY CENTER LOCATION...IF ANY...AT LEAST 100 N MI
SOUTHWEST OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES.  RECENT
TRMM AND SSMI PASSES ARE INCONCLUSIVE BUT FAVOR THE POSITION UNDER
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CHOICE OF LEAST REGRET OR WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS TO OPT FOR THE CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION.  PERHAPS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL RESOLVE THIS QUESTION LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A
VERY SLOW MOTION AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE BASIS OF
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

THE DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT...2.0 FROM ALL
AGENCIES...AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30
KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS
DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME. 
IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND
THE UKMET MODEL FORECASTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH 120 HOURS. 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.

THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 24 TO 48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER
ATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY PHONE
HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL...SO A WATCH WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THERE IS
COMMUNICATION WITH THEM.  MEANWHILE...WORDING IN THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY WILL INDICATE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHOUT
SPECIFICALLY ISSUING A WATCH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 17.1N 103.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N 104.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 18.1N 104.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 105.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 18.8N 106.9W    35 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W    25 KT
 
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