ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003 VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SEEM TO HAVE DELIVERED A LETHAL BLOW TO ANDRES. THE CYCLONE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH NO SIGN OF A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP SIMILAR TO THE LAST THREE NIGHTS. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MOSTLY 25-30 KT WINDS...WITH ONLY ONE SUSPECT 35 KT WIND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM SAB. BASED ON THE ABOVE...ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. WHILE THE REMNANT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR...NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THAT LONG AND IT COULD WELL WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE BEFORE THEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOSTLY CONCEALED BY CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL FLOW. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 14.9N 135.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 137.3W 25 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 142.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 15.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC