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Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO
BANDING DURING THE DAY. LAST AIR FORCE FIX FOUND A VERY TIGHT
CENTER WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT
CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN FACT...THE
GFDL MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A
MUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW.
 
ODETTE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE BIT
FASTER. THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY A
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING
ODETTE OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 15.0N  73.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N  72.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.0N  69.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC