ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003 THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INITIAL DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5/3.0 BRING THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BACK UP TO 45 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EXPECT NICHOLAS TO MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE TROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND ACCELERATING MORE TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY NARROWLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER MAUSSER FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.5N 51.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.9N 51.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 20.3N 53.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 53.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 24.4N 54.1W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 29.1N 53.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z 41.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC