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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003
 
THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS TO THE WEST 
OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  INITIAL DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/3.0 BRING THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BACK UP TO 
45 KTS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7.  THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST DOES NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
EXPECT NICHOLAS TO MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE ATLANTIC BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE TROF MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND ACCELERATING MORE TO THE NORTH. 
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY NARROWLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECASTER MAUSSER
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 18.5N  51.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.9N  51.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.3N  53.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N  53.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 24.4N  54.1W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 29.1N  53.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  52.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC