Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 2.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF SOME
SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING...AND IS BELOW THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS VERY RARE FOR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE A FULL TRANSIT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN GET AS FAR WEST AS SHOWN HERE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z  9.6N  38.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z  9.8N  39.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 10.0N  41.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 10.4N  42.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 10.8N  43.4W    45 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 11.5N  45.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N  47.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 13.5N  49.0W    55 KT
 
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