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Tropical Storm LARRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LARRY IS FINALLY INLAND...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN NO RECON OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING TO
CONFIRM THAT.  AN AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND WILL BE IN
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY OCCURRING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTH OF
THE CENTER.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LARRY WILL BE THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING STORM.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
180/2...AND LARRY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A DAY OR MORE TO CROSS OVER
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS IT MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS.  OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS
AND THE UKMET...ARE SLOWER.

SHOULD LARRY REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER
MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.  HOWEVER...A
NEW NAME WOULD BE GIVEN IF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES AND
THEN REGENERATES IN THE PACIFIC.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 18.3N  93.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 17.7N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.9N  93.7W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N  95.0W    30 KT...OVER PACIFIC WATERS
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  96.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N  98.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W    30 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC