ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EYE-FEATURE AT 00Z...BUT SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LESS DISTINCT. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FORM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.5/77KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...KATE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/19. KATE IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. AS A RESULT...KATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE TOP OF A LARGE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. KATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE HELD HIGHER THAN USUAL MAINLY DUE TO KATE MOVING AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 39.5N 53.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 44.3N 50.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/0000Z 50.9N 44.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1200Z 56.1N 37.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0000Z 58.7N 30.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 61.0N 13.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC