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Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EYE-FEATURE AT 00Z...BUT
SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LESS
DISTINCT. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65
KT FORM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.5/77KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...KATE IS
BEING MAINTAINED AS A HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE
LIKE A MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/19. KATE IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. AS A RESULT...KATE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD
AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE TOP OF A LARGE RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS...AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.

KATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE HELD HIGHER THAN USUAL
MAINLY DUE TO KATE MOVING AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT
AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 39.5N  53.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 44.3N  50.1W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 50.9N  44.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 56.1N  37.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 58.7N  30.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 61.0N  13.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC