ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 KATE RETAINS A BANDING EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO AND T NUMBERS ARE FALLING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. KATE IS ACCELERATING WHILE MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW 020/19. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE HURRICANE AND A LARGER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KATE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...IN PART BECAUSE THAT MODEL INITIALIZED KATE A LITTLE TO THE WEST. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK THAT TAKES KATE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 36.1N 55.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 39.8N 53.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 45.6N 49.6W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/0000Z 52.2N 43.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1200Z 57.1N 36.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1200Z 61.5N 19.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC