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Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
KATE RETAINS A BANDING EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS
EXCEPT THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS A
FEW HOURS AGO AND T NUMBERS ARE FALLING.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 75 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. 
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A
STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
KATE IS ACCELERATING WHILE MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW 020/19.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE
HURRICANE AND A LARGER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KATE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
FASTER...IN PART BECAUSE THAT MODEL INITIALIZED KATE A LITTLE TO
THE WEST.

ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK THAT TAKES KATE EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES
PLACE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 36.1N  55.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 39.8N  53.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 45.6N  49.6W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 52.2N  43.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 57.1N  36.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 61.5N  19.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC