ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T5.8...OR 110 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T5.9/112 KT AT 1815Z. OUTFLOW IS BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...BUT IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. KATE REMAINS ON TRACK...SO THERE IS REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 24 HOURS HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. NOTE...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS...SO A 60-HOUR FORECAST POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 46.5N 51.5W. THIS MOTION WOULD TAKE KATE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AT THAT TIME. KATE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENBSITY...SO SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 54.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.0N 56.0W 105 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 32.8N 57.2W 100 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 35.7N 57.4W 90 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 51.0N 46.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/1800Z 57.5N 27.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1800Z 63.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC