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Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110
KT BASED ON A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T5.8...OR
110 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T5.9/112 KT AT 1815Z. OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...BUT IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND
EXPAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. KATE REMAINS ON TRACK...SO
THERE IS REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD
STILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 24 HOURS HOURS...AND THEN
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY. NOTE...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A
GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS...SO A 60-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 46.5N 51.5W. THIS MOTION WOULD TAKE KATE
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AT THAT TIME.
 
KATE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENBSITY...SO SLOW BUT STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE
OF WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 30.3N  54.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.0N  56.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 32.8N  57.2W   100 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 35.7N  57.4W    90 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 51.0N  46.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 57.5N  27.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1800Z 63.5N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC