Hurricane KATE
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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110
KT BASED ON A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T5.8...OR
110 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T5.9/112 KT AT 1815Z. OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...BUT IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND
EXPAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. KATE REMAINS ON TRACK...SO
THERE IS REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD
STILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 24 HOURS HOURS...AND THEN
RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY. NOTE...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A
GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS...SO A 60-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 46.5N 51.5W. THIS MOTION WOULD TAKE KATE
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AT THAT TIME.
KATE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENBSITY...SO SLOW BUT STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE
OF WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE HURRICANE.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 54.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.0N 56.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 32.8N 57.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 35.7N 57.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 51.0N 46.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1800Z 57.5N 27.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 63.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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