ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 POST ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHEARED DEPRESSION WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING ROUGHLY 120 NM E OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IS LIKELY DUE TO CURRENT INTENSITY CONSTRAINTS OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. CONSIDERING THE SHEARED STATE OF THE DEPRESSION...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/14 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RE-CURVE. THE UKMET MODEL...AN EARLIER OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS... HAS FALLEN INTO AGREEMENT WITH GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDN ON A RE-CURVING SYSTEM BEYOND 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND 96 HOURS... INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETTING PICKED UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A RE-CURVING MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLY SHEARED CIRCULATION AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 19.8N 43.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 21.5N 44.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 23.6N 45.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 25.2N 45.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 26.6N 45.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 29.0N 43.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 30.5N 41.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 32.0N 38.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC