Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
POST ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHEARED
DEPRESSION WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING ROUGHLY 120 NM E OF AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IS LIKELY DUE TO CURRENT
INTENSITY CONSTRAINTS OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. CONSIDERING THE
SHEARED STATE OF THE DEPRESSION...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/14 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RE-CURVE. THE UKMET MODEL...AN
EARLIER OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS... HAS FALLEN INTO
AGREEMENT WITH GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDN ON A RE-CURVING SYSTEM
BEYOND 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND 96 HOURS... INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED
SYSTEM WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETTING PICKED UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A RE-CURVING 
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLY SHEARED CIRCULATION AND A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.  

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 72
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH
THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 19.8N  43.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N  44.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.6N  45.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 25.2N  45.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.6N  45.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  43.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 30.5N  41.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 32.0N  38.0W    50 KT
 
 
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