ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 4.5...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT. THE SEA SURFACE UNDER JUAN WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN IT MOVES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE JUAN TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREFORE JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS A HURRICANE. ALSO...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IN NOVA SCOTIA. JUAN HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT LEAST 17 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. JUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE THE EXTRATRAPICAL TRANSITION SOON AFTER LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A POINT AT 36 H BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 39.4N 64.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.1N 64.1W 80 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 49.7N 63.2W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0000Z 57.0N 61.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC