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Hurricane JUAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
 
THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO
4.5...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.  THE
SEA SURFACE UNDER JUAN WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN IT MOVES NORTH
OF 40N LATITUDE...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE JUAN TO WEAKEN. 
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO 20 TO 25
KT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THEREFORE JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS A HURRICANE.  ALSO...SINCE THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IN NOVA
SCOTIA.

JUAN HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT LEAST 17 KT. 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  

JUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE THE EXTRATRAPICAL TRANSITION SOON AFTER
LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A POINT AT 36 H BUT GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GET ABSORBED BY A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 39.4N  64.1W    85 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.1N  64.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 49.7N  63.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 57.0N  61.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC