Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2003
 
AFTER A LONG AND DIFFICULT DEBATE TO DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL....THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN.  THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT SIGNALS AND WE COULD HAVE GONE
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE BUT AT THE SAME TIME...IT HAS
ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LASTEST AMSU
DATA SHOW A WEAK WARM CORE AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS SUGGESTING
THAT THE CYCLONE IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOME MORE TROPICAL. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATERS
AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE
WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE GFS.   

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 29.5N  61.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  61.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  61.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 33.5N  61.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N  62.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 40.0N  63.2W    55 KT
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 46.0N  62.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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