Hurricane ISABEL

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003
 
THE ALLEGED EYE OF ISABEL PASSED OVER BUOY 13008 LOCATED AT 15N 38W
BETWEEN 14-15Z. THE BUOY REPORTED 37 KT AND 24 KT NORTHEAST WINDS
...TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE SATELLITE CENTER POSITIONS. THESE WIND
REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYE FEATURE...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE EYE FEATURE...OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND OUTFLOW PATTERN HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS
ABOUT 24 NMI SOUTH OF THE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE 12Z GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON KEEPING AT LEAST A
MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISABEL ALONG 32N LATITUDE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN BUILD IT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISABEL MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD
MOTION DEVELOPING AFTER THAT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND SLOWED A LITTLE AFTER 72 HOURS...
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ISABEL CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND...
UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME EVEN
BETTER. BY 36-48 HOURS... ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET
ARE FORECASTING MORE THAN 50 KT OF OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
ISABEL BEING DRAWN INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PATTERN LIKE THAT CAN OFTENTIMES LEAD TO
RAPID OR EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS
ISABEL UP TO 97 KT IN 60 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS  A
LITTLE HIGHER SINCE SHIPS WAS LOW/SLOW WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF
FABIAN. THE INTENSITY WAS LEVELED OFF AFTER 48 HOURS SINCE ISABEL
MAY CROSS A POSSIBLE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE FABIAN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 15.2N  39.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N  40.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N  42.8W    85 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N  45.2W    95 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N  47.7W   100 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N  52.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  55.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  60.0W   100 KT
 
 
NNNN