Tropical Storm ISABEL

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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ISABEL
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND. THE
OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THE NORTHEAST. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS INDICATED BY
GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. IN ADDITION...SSTS ARE INCREASING ALONG
THE PATH OF ISABEL. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND
ISABEL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  

MORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 AT 12 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...A
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 13.6N  34.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.7N  36.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.0N  39.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  41.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  44.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  48.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  51.9W    65 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  56.5W    65 KT
 
 
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