ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 HENRI GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A CYCLONE THAT HAS SHEARED OFF THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTH WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...AND THERE IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER. THE LATEST REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB...AND MOST OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER 40 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...BUT THE 24 HR MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 090/3. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ALSO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PARALLEL TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY AS IT REFORMS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. HENRI IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...AT BEST HENRI CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED FOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OR DISSIPATE IF THE SHEAR GETS TOO STRONG AND THERE ARE NO MORE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. ONE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS TO MAKE HENRI A 35 KT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT 96-120 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONT AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THE CYCLONE HAS SHOWN INCREASED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HENRI IS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE SUCH BURSTS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 27.9N 83.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 28.2N 83.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 29.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 80.4W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 08/0000Z 31.2N 79.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 33.5N 74.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 33.5N 73.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC