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Tropical Storm HENRI


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
HENRI GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A CYCLONE THAT HAS SHEARED OFF THIS
EVENING.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTH
WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...AND THERE IS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER.  THE
LATEST REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB...AND MOST OF
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER 40 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
 
THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...BUT THE 24 HR
MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 090/3.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ALSO...AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS PARALLEL TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY AS IT
REFORMS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE.

HENRI IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THUS...AT BEST HENRI CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED FOR IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA OR DISSIPATE IF THE SHEAR GETS TOO STRONG AND
THERE ARE NO MORE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER.  ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS TO MAKE HENRI A 35 KT EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AT 96-120 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONT AND A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AT THAT TIME.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THE CYCLONE HAS SHOWN
INCREASED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL HENRI IS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE SUCH BURSTS.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 27.9N  83.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.2N  83.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 30.2N  80.4W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 31.2N  79.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 33.5N  74.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z 33.5N  73.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC