ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON HAS REPORTED A CIRCULAR 40 NM MI RADAR EYE. ALSO...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB. THE RECON HAS JUST FLOWN INTO THE NE QUAD AND FOUND A 110 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. BASED ON THIS...THE PRESSURE RISE AND EYE DIAMETER I AM ADJUSTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 350/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. FABIAN HAS MADE SEVERAL MINOR OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND WE HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL BEHAVED IN A FORECAST SENSE. FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS HOWEVER...THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA SOME TIME THIS MORNING. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 29.5N 65.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 65.3W 105 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 34.3N 64.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 36.5N 61.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 46.0N 47.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/0600Z 54.3N 30.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0600Z 59.1N 9.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC