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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON HAS REPORTED A CIRCULAR 40 NM MI RADAR
EYE.  ALSO...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB.  THE RECON HAS JUST
FLOWN INTO THE NE QUAD AND FOUND A 110 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. BASED
ON THIS...THE PRESSURE RISE AND EYE DIAMETER I AM ADJUSTING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 350/15. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. FABIAN HAS
MADE SEVERAL MINOR OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND WE HAVE
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK.  BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN WELL BEHAVED IN A FORECAST SENSE.  FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO. BY 48
HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING
MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.
 
SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS  HOWEVER...THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL
ON THE CYCLONE.
 
PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA SOME TIME THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 29.5N  65.2W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  65.3W   105 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.3N  64.0W   105 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 36.5N  61.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 38.5N  58.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 46.0N  47.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 54.3N  30.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0600Z 59.1N   9.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC