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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE...EARLIER
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT FABIAN
HAD STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT BETWEEN 2000-2200 UTC INDICATED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF
111 KT AND 114 KT. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO OBTAINED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 940 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...AN AREA OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
FOUND...SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. FABIAN HAS MADE ANOTHER
SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AS IT DID THIS SAME TIME LAST NIGHT...SO
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN LINE WITH
THE NEW NHC MODEL RUNS. FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR
BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE
ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS AS SMALL POCKETS OF DRY AIR GET WRAPPED INTO THE
EYEWALL AND INNER-CORE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THESE WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.
 
PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE
WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
BERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWRAT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 27.9N  64.7W   110 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W   110 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 32.6N  64.7W   110 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.9N  63.2W   105 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 37.1N  60.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  51.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 53.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0000Z 58.5N  14.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC